Monsoon likely to cover most parts of northwest India by June 25

The southwest monsoon, which regained momentum this week, is expected to cover most parts of northwest India, including Delhi, by June 25, well ahead of the usual dates.

The primary rain-bearing system reached Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it arrived on May 23.

Aided by strong low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the monsoon advanced quickly over the next few days, covering parts up to central Maharashtra, including Mumbai, and the entire northeast by May 29.

However, it stalled from May 28-29 until June 10-11 before becoming active again.

The lack of rainfall since early June led to a sharp rise in temperatures, triggering heatwave conditions across large parts of northwest and central India since June 8-9.

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According to the India Meteorological Department’s extended range forecast, the monsoon is now likely to cover the remaining parts of central and eastern India and some areas of northwest India by June 18.

It is expected to advance over most of northwest India between June 19 and June 25.

An IMD official said the system is likely to reach Delhi by June 22–23, ahead of the normal onset date of June 30.

The southwest monsoon usually makes its onset over Kerala by June 1, reaches Mumbai by June 11 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.

Meteorologists say that the date of monsoon onset does not directly correlate with the total seasonal rainfall. An early or delayed arrival in Kerala or Mumbai does not necessarily indicate similar progress in other parts of the country.

They say that the monsoon is influenced by complex global, regional and local factors and is marked by significant variability.

In May, the IMD had forecast that India is likely to receive 106 per cent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June-September monsoon season. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of this 50-year average is considered ‘normal’.

Above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, except Ladakh, adjoining areas of Himachal Pradesh, the northeast and some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha.

Some isolated areas in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may record below-normal rainfall.

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The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the GDP.

It also plays a key role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation.