As Delhi’s air quality deteriorated further on Tuesday with the Air Quality Index (AQI) climbing to 348 in the ‘very poor’ category, stubble burning is likely to contribute an increasing share to the city’s PM2.5 pollution over the next three days, according to a forecast.
Delhi’s AQI stood at 324 on November 2 and 261 on November 1, indicating deteriorating air quality over the last two days.
According to the Decision Support System (DSS) for air quality management in Delhi, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the contribution of stubble burning to the city’s PM2.5 concentration is forecast to increase from 8.583 per cent on November 2 to 15.301 per cent on November 3.
The rising contribution comes amid continued detection of farm fires across the neighbouring states. Satellites detected 219 paddy residue-burning incidents across the states monitored on November 2, including 98 in Punjab, 67 in Rajasthan, 48 in Madhya Pradesh, four in Uttar Pradesh and two in Haryana.
No residue-burning incidents were detected in Delhi or Uttarakhand on the day, according to the Consortium for Research on Agroecosystem Monitoring and Modelling from Space (CREAMS) Lab of the Division of Agricultural Physics at the ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute.
The contribution is expected to rise further to 20.057 per cent on November 4 and 22.207 per cent on November 5, the forecast showed.
The DSS forecast for stubble-burning contribution over the next three days is based on climatological data on fire counts and emissions.
A total of 3,535 farm-fire incidents were detected between September 15 and November 2 this year.
Punjab accounted for the highest at 1,612, followed by Rajasthan (738), Madhya Pradesh (614), Uttar Pradesh (349), Uttarakhand (176), Haryana (44) and Delhi (two).
However, the number of farm-fire incidents has witnessed a significant decline over the years, CREAMS Lab data showed.
During the corresponding period in 2020, 51,822 incidents were detected across the states and regions covered by the bulletin. The count fell to 24,583 in 2021 and 26,490 in 2022, before declining to 18,991 in 2023, 9,668 in 2024 and 4,993 in 2025.
Punjab, which continues to account for the highest number of farm fires this season, recorded 1,612 incidents till November 2, compared with 2,262 during the corresponding period last year and 41,176 in 2020.
Haryana also recorded a sharp decline, with 44 incidents this season against 122 in 2025 and 2,606 in 2020.
The data, compiled using satellite remote sensing under the standard protocol for estimating crop residue-burning fire events, indicates a sustained reduction in detected incidents compared with previous years, even as farm fires continue to contribute to Delhi’s particulate pollution during the post-harvest season.
The stubble-burning period runs from September 15 to November 30. Delhi recorded its first farm-fire incident of the season on September 19, while the second was detected on October 24.
While the forecast points to a rising share of stubble burning in Delhi’s PM2.5 levels, the city’s deteriorating air quality is influenced by multiple sources of pollution, with the contribution of farm fires also varying according to prevailing meteorological conditions and wind conditions.
